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NHC Atlantic Outlook

October 4th, 2009

NHC Atlantic Outlook


Atlantic Graphical Outlook Image width="400" height="326" />


ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL

TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

800 PM EDT SUN OCT 4 2009



FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC…CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO…



1. A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 1200 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD

ISLANDS IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE

OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

THERE IS A LOW CHANCE…LESS THAN 30 PERCENT…OF THIS SYSTEM

BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.



2. SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED NEAR THE CENTER OF A NON-TROPICAL

LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 225 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE AZORES

ISLANDS. THIS LOW IS MOVING QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD COOLER

WATERS AND DEVELOPMENT INTO SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE IS NOT

LIKELY. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE…LESS THAN 30 PERCENT…OF THIS

SYSTEM BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT

48 HOURS.



ELSEWHERE…TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE

NEXT 48 HOURS.



$$

FORECASTER BROWN

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