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NHC Atlantic Outlook

October 4th, 2009

NHC Atlantic Outlook


Atlantic Graphical Outlook Image width="400" height="326" />


ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL

TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

905 PM EDT SUN OCT 4 2009



FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC…CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO…



SPECIAL OUTLOOK ISSUED TO UPDATE DISCUSSION OF LOW NORTHEAST OF THE

AZORES



1. SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED

ABOUT 300 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE AZORES ISLANDS HAS CONTINUED

TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE ACQUIRING

TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES OVER THE NEXT

HOUR OR TWO…ADVISORIES ON A TROPICAL STORM WILL BE INITIATED

LATER THIS EVENING. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE…GREATER THAN 50

PERCENT…OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE

NEXT FEW HOURS.



2. A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 1200 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD

ISLANDS IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE

OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

THERE IS A LOW CHANCE…LESS THAN 30 PERCENT…OF THIS SYSTEM

BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.



ELSEWHERE…TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE

NEXT 48 HOURS.



$$

FORECASTER FRANKLIN/BROWN

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